Statistical Analysis
n = 102 days
Dataset size
n = — days
Pre-crisis mean (Jan–Feb 27)
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Post-crisis mean (Feb 28+)
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Change point detected
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Pearson r (ships ↔ crude)
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R² (explained variance)
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Reopening estimate
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Pearson Correlation — Ships vs Crude Price
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Strong inverse relationship: as strait traffic falls, crude prices rise sharply.
This confirms supply-shock transmission from maritime disruption to energy markets.
Trajectory forecast: At current selective-passage growth rate of ~1.5 ships/week,
normal operations (≥60 ships/day) estimated: Q3 2026.
Assumes no further escalation. n = — days of observations.
Regression: Ship Transits → Brent Crude